{"id":27854,"date":"2026-06-11T15:58:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:58:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/?p=27854"},"modified":"2026-06-12T10:12:57","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T08:12:57","slug":"que-disent-vraiment-les-sondages-de-mai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/2026\/06\/11\/que-disent-vraiment-les-sondages-de-mai\/","title":{"rendered":"Que disent vraiment les sondages de mai ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Par Andr\u00e9 Vi\u00e8te<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La vague des derniers sondages sur l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle a commenc\u00e9 avec le \u00ab&nbsp;coup de tonnerre&nbsp;\u00bb bien imprudent de Ga\u00ebl Slimane, le directeur d\u2019Odoxa, qui commentait son \u00ab&nbsp;Barom\u00e8tre Odoxa Mascaret&nbsp;\u00bb du 20-21 mai. Au premier tour, Philippe d\u00e9vissait (17%, -4%) et M\u00e9lenchon semblait le rattraper (16%, +4%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mais ce r\u00e9sultat n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 confirm\u00e9 par les trois sondages post\u00e9rieurs (Toluna Harris 25-27 mai, IFOP 26-28 mai, et IPSOS 27-28 mai). Dans les cas o\u00f9 Philippe serait seul \u00e0 repr\u00e9senter le centre (situation du sondage Odoxa), il remporterait&nbsp;: 17% des voix et JLM 15% (Harris), de 18 \u00e0 22% et JLM de 12,5 \u00e0 15% (IFOP), 17,5% et JLM 13% (IPSOS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">C\u2019est seulement dans le cas o\u00f9 Philippe et Attal seraient en concurrence que Philippe se situerait \u00e0 un point de diff\u00e9rence, au-dessus ou en-dessous de M\u00e9lenchon, autour de 13-14%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Au second tour, Harris donne Bardella gagnant \u00e0 68% face \u00e0 M\u00e9lenchon, et \u00e0 54% face \u00e0 Philippe (pas de sondage ant\u00e9rieur permettant une comparaison). Chez Odoxa, Bardella l\u2019emporte \u00e0 52% face \u00e0 Philippe, ce qui constitue une inversion par rapport au sondage du 25-26 mars&nbsp;: 52% pour Philippe, 48% pour Bardella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En bref, on ne peut pas parler de nouvelle tendance. Le RN est loin devant au premier tour (32 \u00e0 34%) et en position de remporter le deuxi\u00e8me tour. M\u00e9lenchon n\u2019est pas r\u00e9ellement en mesure de figurer au deuxi\u00e8me tour. Quand il est \u00e9valu\u00e9 pour ce deuxi\u00e8me tour, il est largement battu (36 points) par Bardella ou Marine Le Pen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dessin : \u00a9 Deligne \/ Le P\u00e8lerin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Par Andr\u00e9 Vi\u00e8te La vague des derniers sondages sur l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle a commenc\u00e9 avec le \u00ab&nbsp;coup de tonnerre&nbsp;\u00bb bien imprudent de Ga\u00ebl Slimane, le directeur d\u2019Odoxa, qui commentait son \u00ab&nbsp;Barom\u00e8tre Odoxa Mascaret&nbsp;\u00bb du 20-21 mai. Au premier tour, Philippe d\u00e9vissait (17%, -4%) et M\u00e9lenchon semblait le rattraper (16%, +4%). Mais ce r\u00e9sultat n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":27890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[98,99],"post_template":[64],"top_category":[],"class_list":["post-27854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politique","tag-elections-presidentielles","tag-sondage","post_template-breves","pmpro-has-access"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27854","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27854"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27854\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27892,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27854\/revisions\/27892"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27854"},{"taxonomy":"post_template","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_template?post=27854"},{"taxonomy":"top_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/antoinerf.com\/ff\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/top_category?post=27854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}